At an engineering industry conference many years ago, I was told by an automotive engineer that if the average consumer knew how cars were designed and constructed that no one would ever drive a car above 35 mph. I hoped he was exaggerating, but I have seldom neglected my car’s preventative maintenance since that meeting. The point is that I had never really thought about what went into making a car safe to drive. My car was just something I used without really thinking too much about it. Like the average person in this country, car safety was something that was taken for granted. Yet recent news from the auto industry has taken away some of that confidence.

The solar PV industry shares a lot of similarities with the auto industry… There are design considerations in a PV system that can result in significant safety issues if not properly addressed. And very few people outside of the industry understand the inner workings of an inverter or realize just how high the DC voltages in a PV array can get. Consumers who have embraced solar PV have done so under the belief that the system they bought will be safe and reliable for the 50 plus years that a PV array may produce energy. And while the PV industry has not experienced a confidence rattling bout of negative press, it could happen. All it takes is ignorance.

So while it would be tough for someone to start a fly-by-night car manufacturing company, starting just such a solar installation company would not be difficult. We have to face the fact that the growing popularity and explosive growth of the solar industry is going to attract an element that is looking only for the quick buck. Slick websites can be had for a small investment. And consumers will be tempted by low prices and inflated promises simply because they don’t realize or understand the possible ramifications of substandard work.

What is the industry doing to head off potentially bad press? One word – Training. ONTILITY has partnered with NABCEP to make sure future installers and designers receive the very best training possible. Community Colleges and Universities, supported by grants from the Department of Energy, are also jumping on the bandwagon creating degree programs for the future careers in sustainability. Regulation is also becoming a bigger part of the picture. Requirements to be involved in the Solar PV installation business are becoming stricter. Advanced training requirements are the rule rather than the exception. The industry is doing an excellent job of policing itself.

But we have one more step to complete. The consumer has to be molded into a fully educated consumer. The industry has to make sure that the consumer has all the tools and information need to know the difference between the reputable installers and the “We’ll take your home off grid” scam artists. The manufacturing and distribution side of the industry can help, but by nature has limited contact with the end user. NABCEP has done an excellent job of providing pertinent information for consumers who use Google to search for Solar PV Installers. But the bulk of the work will be left to the installers and designs. They will be the face of the industry, and they must take the time to educate their customers. And for them to do that successfully, they themselves must be educated. Training is the key.

The solar market is about to boom and a few opportunistic entrepreneurs are positioning themselves to be ready when it happens. Small businesses around the country are scrambling to get ahead of the game and their competition by getting trained in solar electric installation and becoming dealers and installers of solar panels.

It’s not just about being “green” anymore

In the past, the “green” movement had driven much of the business in the solar industry, but now government initiatives, utility incentives, and technological advances are creating a perfect storm for the businesses that are ready to act.

The steady drop in solar equipment prices due to advances in technology and increased demand have set the solar price point to an area where it’s not just about being “green” anymore, solar actually makes sense as a strategic investment. The great news is quickly spreading to consumers while electrical contractors, roofers, and energy consultants expand their businesses to offer solar upgrades to handle the demand.

“The Rising Tide Floats All Boats”

In addition to being a growing industry, solar is a fun business to be a part of. Former competitors are acting as partners and businesses are helping each other out because this rising tide is floating all solar boats. As solar becomes more popular and mainstream, everyone involved is coming out as a winner. I’ve never been a part of a more friendly industry.

It’s definitely an exciting time to be in the solar industry, and there is still room for you. The first step is research and training, and Ontility offers the best of each. Explore your options on our website, or call us at any time for your solar questions. Our job is to help you succeed, and we have the best support system in the industry to help you exceed your goals.

How much solar training is enough? How many solar installers do you really need to train? Are you at risk of training more clean energy workers than there are jobs?

These are legitimate questions that I hear often – questions that those of us at the center of solar, wind and energy efficiency training grapple with and discuss.

The Federal government, through the accountability measures attached to ARRA funds, is asking the same questions, and demanding answers from training programs. Job placement as a criterion of success is a feature of a number of federally funded programs: A good thing – jobs are, after all, the primary goal of many of our training efforts...

If you think that we are seriously at risk of over-training and educating scores of clean energy workers who will then go back to the couch they were on before they came to class, read the recently published Texas Green Jobs Guidebook by Kate Robertson and published by the Texas Workforce Commission. In the introduction, it describes an industry that is nowhere close to saturation. Instead, the guide predicts growth rates which greatly exceed our current capacity to train and qualify workers.

Yes, those of us develop and implement training programs must be sensitive to the rate at which newly minted clean energy workers can be employed. This is a mostly tactical matter – How many new students should we enroll in a program this quarter? What are the current and near-term market conditions? What new funding source or market force is going to fuel a surge in demand? When will that surge impact hiring? These matters have huge impact on my daily life now, and always will – no matter how robust the job market, these and similar questions are always part of good tactical planning.

Looking a bit further ahead, we’ll need a strategy focused on how effectively we can scale high quality training. Programs like the DOE South Central Solar Instructor Training Network and various other train-the-trainer style programs are excellent beginnings. These initiatives are aimed at expanding the number of community college and technical school-based clean tech educational programs without relying solely on the efforts of each institution. Through these educational consortia, more well prepared instructors using sound curricula can be rolled out in a shorter time than would happen if each school was on its own. In the case of the South Central Network, efforts in this region will be carried to other regional consortia with the goal of coordinating and improving renewable energy education nationwide at a pace in keeping with a rapidly emerging industry.

After nearly a half century of neglect, vocational education is coming back and energy self sufficiency is leading the way. The call for jobs that can’t be exported, the need for millions of workers who have been displaced, the need for newly trained solar, wind, geothermal and energy efficiency workers all points to a revival of hands-on training, practical, immediately applicable education – simply put vocational education.

There are millions of young people who are better suited for working directly with things rather than thinking up new processes – this has always been the case. Historically societies have had great need for these skilled craftspeople, artisans and tradesmen. They made possible the “built environment” and kept it running. There have always been doers and thinkers. During this most recent half century, though, we have deluded ourselves into believing that everyone can be, and more importantly wants to be, a thinker. The result? We exported the doing.

The work (doing) that couldn’t be exported – plumbing and electrical come to mind immediately – are dominated by soon-to-retire baby boomers. This much written about crisis in the workforce and the subsequent “blue collar renaissance” is just one of the drivers behind the rebirth of vocational education.

A group of community college and technical high school instructors gathered recently to launch a train-the-trainer program under the auspices of the South Central Solar Instructor Training Network sponsored by the US Dept. of Energy and hosted by the Energy Institute at Houston Community College. More than once during the very lively conversations (no shortage of that in a room full of educators) that week, the subject of vocational education came up: What about the kids who want to work with their hands, who aren’t interested in going tens of thousands of dollars in debt for an education that for many is only a ticket to graduate school and more debt? What about the kids with college educated parents whose white collar jobs have vanished? Many these young people are looking for a reliable career path and are ready to get on with it now.

Is clean tech leading the revival? Yes, through solar training and energy efficiency short courses for contractors as well as community college and technical high school programs, preparing students for speedy and successful entry into the clean tech workforce. I hope that mainstream public high schools, the big ones, the ones with 3,000 students in major metropolitan areas, are seeing the need and the opportunity: The need to be more relevant to a greater number of students; the opportunity to reduce dropout rates and contribute directly to energy independence and sustainability.

ONtility CEO, Tom Pash, has reported, the world wide market for Solar PV modules continues to drive prices down. At the same time, PV module manufacturers are delivering products with excellent performance, including cell efficiencies in the 17% range and 25 year power warranties. Pricing for some PV modules is already below the $2/watt point. These factors combine to make Solar PV a win-win proposition for the residential system owner. The quality of the product, reliability, improved return on investment and excellent aesthetics make it even easier for solar installation companies to sell systems to home owners.

ONtility has partnered with three manufacturers to bring the best of residential solar modules to the distribution market. Suntech, Schüco and Grape Solar all offer 175W modules that are well suited to residential systems. With similar specifications and excellent power density, these modules offer incredible value and maximum configurability for the homeowner wishing to invest in renewable energy. Additionally, being sensitive to the aesthetics required for installations subject to HOA oversight, Suntech and Schüco offer black on black modules – helping the array to blend into the roof. If frame color is less of an issue, Grape Solar offers a clear frame on their module that could save up to $300 in material costs for a 3kW array.

These 175W modules can all be configured in systems using standard string inverters to achieve the best system cost/watt. However, in the instances where customer interest is high but the budget is tight, these modules also work well with the new microinverter technology. Like the M190 by Enphase, these new technologies are becoming more common. A system could be as small as one module and one microinverter. Also, with proper planning the system can be increased in small increments as the customer’s budget allows. While not as cost effective as a system with a single inverter, it significantly lowers the “cover charge” for entering the Solar PV arena.

Installers will also be pleased with the weight and power density of these three modules. At less than 35 lbs each, modules will be easier to handle, which is especially important on steeper roofs. And with power densities over 12.5 Watt/sq ft, less roof area and less racking will be needed for the array.

Combine all these factors together, and the reasons for not going green are decreasing even faster than the price of these top tier PV modules. Why wait? The sun is already out!

Reduction in feed in tariffs (FiTs) in Germany may not mean bad news for solar in the US. ONtility market analysis indicates the likelihood for complete, installed solar PV systems for $3.00/watt before rebates and incentives!

Is it possible that by the end of 2010, US solar buyers may be looking at complete, installed solar PV systems starting at $3.00/w before rebates and/or incentives? Yes, at ONtility we think you can count on it. Based on global solar demand slowing and significant production increases, as the CEO and President of ONtility, our analyses support my belief that we will witness a sharp solar price deceleration over the next 12 to 24 months.

So, here is the good news-bad news situation: The bad news for the global solar market is that the upcoming German feed in tariff (FiT) reduction (beginning step-wise in April) will slow overall global solar expansion this year. The recent FiT change in Germany will shift the solar market quickly to a buyers market again.

The good news is that the sharp reduction in global solar demand, coupled with large increases in solar module production, especially from Chinese and European manufactures, including Suntech Power, Trina, Yingli, Schuco, and Grape Solar, will drastically reduce US solar module and solar balance of system (BoS) component costs by 30%-40% or more this year.

The simple formula for US solar buyers is: reduction + production = adoption. I think, based on that one, simple macro economic formula, the table is set for a US solar boom starting this year.

Even if global solar demand increases this year, I still believe that we will witness a sharp solar price deceleration. Why? There is no real fixed or set cost for discovery and extraction. Or as they would say in the movie, There Will be Blood, there is no milkshake to drink. Solar as compared to gold, oil, or any other non-renewable natural resource doesn’t have a set cost for exploration and extraction. Solar modules and associated components are sourced in electronics. We all know the typical cost and price trend line of electronics production over time: product prices fall quickly while quality and functionality improves. Functionality in the solar world can be thought of as equaling higher efficiency and/or yields.

What is important to remember is that solar modules and solar balance of system components are comprised of electronics, not natural resources. The only small input component that might be considered a natural resource component of solar modules is silicon. Silicon production, like modules has grown quickly to support the recent global solar boom. That being said, there doesn’t appear to be constraints in the solar supply chain for many years to come. With supply now in sync and ahead of demand, the typical price trend when production scales up in the electronics and semiconductor industry is down. I believe that we see this trend accelerate from early 2010 to early 2012.

So, the good news for US solar consumers is that the price per watt is going to fall quickly. For US consumers, there really is no bad news. The better news is that we are going to see rebates and incentive programs that will, in some markets, make solar systems essentially free. Worst case scenario would be that without rebates, the return on the average solar system will be reduced from a decade, as was the ROI of just a few years ago, to an ROI of just a few years and/or months, beginning this year.

To reiterate, the simple formula for US solar buyers is:

reduction + production = adoption

Not only do I and we at ONtility forecast a US solar boom beginning over the next quarter, but grid parity is getting closer than ever.

When I first got interested in solar photovoltaics, I was not yet a high school student. I was fascinated by the concept of turning sunlight into electricity. That fascination has held throughout my career as an electrical engineer, though it was not until recently that I became a full-time participant in the renewable energy industry.

Now that I’m teaching the NABCEP Entry Level Solar PV course and helping customers with PV designs, I appreciate how much that the field of photovoltaics has evolved since the early 80’s. The birth of grid-tie inverters in the last decade has opened up nearly every roof to the potential for making energy. And the growth of the Solar PV market in the United States is seeing exponential growth, with foreign companies opening locations in the US to meet the demand. Suntech recently announced plans to open a module manufacturing plant in Phoenix, AZ. Sanyo has announced similar plans for a facility in Salem, OR. And SMA has announced a new inverter assembly plant in Denver, their first factory outside of Germany.

But with all that, the industry still faces challenges in making Solar Electricity a main stream energy source in this country. While utilities support the growth of Solar PV distributed generation on one hand, they bemoan the “unreliability” of sunlight and the resulting requirement to keep expensive peak demand power plants on standby in case a thunderstorm that shuts off PV production.

Over time, we will have to move from our grid-tie only designs to systems that incorporate some kind of useful (and cost effective) energy storage so that energy from the sun can be used at night. The electric vehicle industry may help us along that path. Or research into new glitter sized PV cells may eliminate the need for separate energy storage components.

Earlier in our Blog, Ken addressed the issue of expectations of students versus the desires of employers. There is no doubt that there is a shortage of “boots for the roof.” Yet many of the students I see coming to our Solar PV Design and Installation class, a course designed to teach the NABCEP Entry Level PV Learning Objectives, are coming not to learn the skills needed to get on the roof. Instead, they want to learn about the design aspects and business considerations of PV installations. They come with visions of owning companies installing the systems that our country’s push towards green energy seems to mandate. Teaching to those expectations is a challenge. It is important that the energy level of the classroom is kept high, yet we can not promote a pie in the sky vision of all desert and no vegetables. Solar PV design is glamorous, yes. But much of the work needed to turn a design into reality is not glamorous. It can be back breaking work that must be done, in frequently adverse weather conditions under tight time limits. But it is deeply satisfying work as a recent “refresher course” reminded me while I worked in mud, rain and snow on a 215kW ground mount.

Another challenge we face in teaching is the extreme variances in the backgrounds of the students coming to class. This is not an eighth grade class. Students comprise all socio-economic groups. There are the highly educated and the barely educated. There are the students fresh out of high school and the students looking for something to do in their retirement. Master electricians sit next to people with little knowledge of electricity. Successful business people are looking to expand and the freshly laid-off are looking for the next career. Finding a way to help each of these students reach his or her goals for the course requires a certain flexibility in schedule and curriculum that has to be continuously adjusted. Every time we teach a class, we come away with new questions and new solutions. We find common life analogies to teach difficult subjects that work so well it’s almost frightening.

But there are only so many things that can be taught in a 5-day class. With incentives and rebates changing frequently, and students coming from different parts of the country, it’s not possible to cover every possible scenario. Then there are the challenges of dealing with retail energy providers, utilities and the often dreaded Home Owners Association (my personal nemesis) that can not be taught in the class room setting. Those are lessons that are only learned in the field.

So it’s important that students know when they leave the class that their learning has just begun. We may not be able to make them smart. But we can make them wise enough to know what they don’t know, and to be able to find the resources they need to finish the job. We must stress the continuing education requirements for being in the Solar PV industry.

On January 8th 2010 President Obama announced the award of $2.3 billion in Recovery Act dollars for Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credits to 183 projects in 43 states which aim to ramp up clean energy manufacturing projects across the US. This new tax credit program operated through a strategic partnership between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Treasury is similar to the Payment for Specified Energy Property in Lieu of Tax Credits program started in July of 2009 which offers an up-front payment up to 30% of project costs for the construction of commercial renewable energy generation systems. The Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit authorizes the Treasury to provide developers with an investment tax credit of 30% for facilities that manufacture parts and components for renewable energy and energy efficient products. The DOE asserts that this $2.3 billion will leverage an additional $5.4 billion in private capital for high-tech manufacturing facilities in the United States and create more than 17,000 new high quality clean energy jobs. While projects selected for this tax credit generally must be placed in service by 2014, the DOE reports that approximately 30% of them will be completed in 2010.

Instead of focusing on solar and other renewable energy generation these Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credits focus on the often neglected importance of positioning the US as a global leader in clean-tech manufacturing. In my opinion, the unambiguous divide in American society’s fervor for politics, climate change and cap and trade are as expected due to our recent economic woes. No matter where one stands in their personal convictions it is clear to most Americans that our economy is definitely on the wrong track. With that said, it is important to understand and recognize that the global economic recovery’s course of action will undoubtedly include new technologies that will offer energy efficient means to produce clean and abundant renewable energy ends. Therefore, in order to revive our stagnant economy it is a necessity that the classic American Ingenuity which established us as a world leader at the turn of the 20th century through our emerging auto industry or later on in the 21st century through space exploration is revisited and invested so that as we move into the new “global green economy” we can establish ourselves as the leading global suppliers of American made Advanced Energy components and equipment that will change the way we power the world. Although there were many relevant quotes in Obama’s announcement that reflect my sentiments on this topic I believe Vice President Biden and Secretary Chu summed it up the best:

"By investing in innovative clean energy manufacturing projects like these, we are not only creating good jobs now, but helping lay a new foundation to keep America competitive in the 21st century economy," said Vice President Biden. "This is what the Recovery Act is all about."

"The world urgently needs to move toward clean energy technologies, and the United States has the opportunity to lead in this new industrial revolution," said Secretary Chu. "Today's awards will create new jobs and jumpstart the industries we need to both solve the energy problem and ensure America's future competitiveness."

Since Ontility is part of a separate DOE program that focuses on training solar and other renewable energy installers in the Mid-South Region I thought that it would be interesting to browse through the list of 183 projects and see how our region compares with the rest of the country and effectively express the importance of getting a green workforce trained for these upcoming new clean-tech jobs. After reading through the chosen projects it has become abundantly clear that not only is the mid-south region in need of specific “green industry training” but we are quickly positioning ourselves to become national leaders in Advanced Energy Manufacturing due to our well rounded and diversified portfolio.

Below is a list of some of the projects in the region and what they will be manufacturing:

• Climate Master will expand the capacity of existing manufacturing facilities that produce water-source heat pumps, the core technology used in geothermal heat pump systems.
• Cooper Power Systems' new facility will produce electrical transformers with amorphous steel cores. Amorphous steel core transformers provide 70% lower no-load losses than normal steel transformers.
• Ductmate will expand manufacturing and tooling capabilities for the production of energy efficient HVAC ductwork featuring self-sealing fixtures.
• Martifer-Hirschfeld Energy Systems LLC will develop a factory for the production of steel towers for wind turbine generators. This evolution will allow the wind tower plant to achieve considerable gains in terms of efficiency and in production times.
• Nordex USA, Inc. will build its first facility for wind turbines. This project will use renewable energy and will help build wind turbines to generate renewable energy.
• Porocel Industries, LLC will construct and operate a plant for drying, grinding, calcining, and packaging process steps for the production of intermediate material used in the production of Conoco Phillips’ CPreme® Anode. The result will aid in competitive domestic battery manufacturing capability.
• PPG Industries will manufacture Hi Sil 190 G and Hi Sil HDP 320 G, highly dispersible silica and to sell to tire manufacturers. The product, when incorporated into the tire rubber, will create a tire with reduced rolling resistance. The resulting product will increase vehicle fuel efficiency.
• Ringdale will purchase equipment to expand production capacity of commercial LED lighting and advanced lighting controls technology. The results will address outdoor, street, area lights, and indoor recessed down-lights, and will promote greater energy efficiency.
• Roller Bearing Company of America, Inc will produce turbine blade and yaw bearings, both of which will be used in wind turbines. The blades are attached to a hub by large pitch bearings which facilitate movement allowing optimal performance with varying wind conditions. Yaw bearings allow the nacelle to be directed into the wind allowing more efficient conversion of wind into electricity. The resulting technologies will aid domestic production of wind turbines and renewable wind energy.
• Shaw Modular Solutions LLC will fabricate modules used in advanced, passively-safe, nuclear stations which avoid GHG emissions. The resulting product will aid the domestic nuclear energy industry.
• Siemens Energy Inc. will expand a wind turbine blade manufacturing facility. The expanded facility will be capable of producing both 45 meter and 49 meter blades for the Siemens SWT-2.3mw wind turbine. The resulting product will aid the domestic wind power industry.
• Sumco Phoenix will be manufacturing and shaping silicon solar blocks. These silicon blocks will then be sent for further processing into solar wafers and sold to solar equipment manufacturers. The resulting technologies will aid the domestic solar technologies manufacturing industry.
• Texas Instruments will re-equip a facility and purchase equipment to produce 300mm wafers for advanced power management semiconductors.
• Johnson Plate & Tower Fabrication will establish and design a facility to manufacture commercial wind towers. The facility will produce property that, after further manufacturing, will become Specified Advanced Energy Property used in the production of energy from wind resources.
• Mitsubishi Power Systems Americas, Inc. will create a new facility that will manufacture nacelles for 2.4MW wind turbines. These nacelles will be used for the production of wind energy.

As we approach the end of our first year and a half of offering solar PV training and make plans for year three, we see a number of challenges and opportunities. The newly revised NABCEP talk analysis and learning objectives for entry level training offers one guide for what our entry level course should be. Conversations with employers – green builders, solar contractors, electrical companies – and general solar market demands offer other perspectives. There is not always 100% uniform agreement across this spectrum.

Revisions to the NABCEP learning objectives indicate a need for more safety instruction, greater emphasis on basic electricity and solar fundamentals and a much welcomed move toward teaching a standardized terminology (establishment of a standardized lexicon is vital to an emerging industry) as part of the core of solar training. We also see a move away from the memorization of historic and industry factoids, useful perhaps for social conversation, but of dubious direct value on a job site.

These shifts represent an overall trend toward more rigorous solar training and educational requirements for entry-level solar PV workers, at least those who choose to take the NABCEP Entry Level exam. Passing that exam will require deeper, more comprehensive knowledge about the solar resource, how it is converted to electricity and how that energy is used. All this in addition to the site analysis, system sizing, array layout, and roofing which are already vital parts of the entry level course.

Recent conversations with contractors who hire entry level workers tell a somewhat different story. One said that he doesn’t hire anyone who has taken the NABCEP Entry Level test because they have unrealistic expectations about what the job will be. He said that they expect to immediately go to work designing systems and supervising installations. When they are faced with the reality of, “loading solar modules onto the roof and driving the truck,” they are frustrated and quit or settle into a pattern of low performance.

On the other hand, at the IREC conference on Renewable Energy workforce education in Albany last month, Ezra Auerbach, Executive Director of NABCEP, said that entry level solar PV workers face a period of “module toting”, an acceptable and important part of on-the-job-training and work experience.

To a certain extent, I understand the disappointed workers mentioned by the contractor. In some cases, they’ve taken multiple college level courses over several semesters. They’ve invested substantially to achieve a milestone. They’ve studied college level texts (see the NABCEP Suggested References list on the last page of the Learning Objectives) and spent significant quality time with the NEC book. Perhaps they are experienced workers from other industries who feel they’ve already paid their toting and fetching dues. Little wonder that expectations are high.

And I agree with Mr. Auerbach and the contractor – there is no substitute for work experience. And no better way to fully learn a trade than to do all the tasks, including the toting and fetching.

Next time: Rewards and Managing Expectations